Risk is more than price movement
A portfolio can rise while becoming less resilient. Concentration can increase, liquidity can fall, and correlated holdings can make diversification look stronger than it is. Useful risk analysis separates these questions instead of compressing them into one unexplained number.
Start with concentration and drawdown
Ask how much of the portfolio depends on one asset, one sector, or one market narrative. Then measure the decline from a prior peak. These two views reveal whether a portfolio is exposed to a single failure and how much stress it has already absorbed.
Use scenarios, not predictions
A scenario such as a 20% Bitcoin decline is not a forecast. It is a controlled question: what could happen to the portfolio if the assumption were true? Scenario analysis makes dependencies visible without pretending the future is known.